Thrill & fear on day of hope

ZULFIQAR AHMAD IN KARACHI

Karachi was eerily quite, roads empty and shops shut, as the polling day dawned. Excitement, anticipation and apprehension had been building up in this violence-ridden city of over 20 million for the last 48 hours. At many polling stations lines started forming hours before 8AM, the official opening time for the poll. Voters' lines in many constituencies grew rapidly. Reports from other cities also indicated a heavy turn out which, according to some analysts, might top the record of 59 percent in 1970 elections. The excitement among voters waiting with good humor in long lines was palpable even as the temperature surged towards 38 degrees Celsius. A large number of young and excited men and, significantly, women were evident at many polling stations. The apprehensions of violence and rigging lurked just behind this festive environment and emerged as the day wore on and reports of irregularities and small bomb blasts began to travel around the city. In one constituency of over 365000 registered voters, NA 250, which covers some upscale areas – like Defence and Clifton – and some not so posh neighborhoods, discomfort grew as the opening of many polling stations was delayed because neither the ballots nor the ballot boxes had arrived. Seven hours later there was still no sign of ballot boxes or papers at most of NA250 polling stations as many people, particularly older voters, stated to leave. Late in the day, the Election Commissioner of Pakistan announced that vehicles taking the ballots to various polling stations have been hijacked and indicated that polling time will be extended till 8PM. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) even accepted that it has failed to conduct a completely open and fair election in Karachi. Numerous reports and anecdotal evidence indicate that large-scale intimidation, polling station capturing and hostage taking of polling staff, has taken place in at least four constituencies in Karachi and two in Hyderabad. These constituencies are the strongholds of Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) but have recently witnessed a strong surge of support for Imran Khan's Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). At one polling station in NA250 most of the voters standing in line were opening displaying their support for the PTI. All fingers are being pointed towards MQM, which has a long history of violence and employing strong-arm tactics. Three political parties, including Jamiat-e-Islami, have withdrawn their candidates from Karachi and Hyderabad. Late in the evening, the ECP annulled polling from a number of stations in Karachi and ordered another round of voting. The news from Punjab and interior Sind has been better with reports of, more or less, orderly polling. Punjab, in particular, has witnessed very heavy voter turn out, especially among the young men and women that may help PTI. However, many constituencies across Pakistan with strong Awami National Party (ANP) presence, a primarily Puktun party, have come under attack by the Taliban. Not many commentators in Pakistan are willing to make predictions. The last time Pakistan witnessed a strong campaign by an untested political party was in 1970 when the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) led by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto won 81 of 138 seats allocated to West Pakistan in the National Assembly. While few feel that PTI can repeat the PPP's feat from 1970, not many are sure either of the extent of PTI's success. Tomorrow will tell. The vote counting has begun immediately after the close of the polls. Some results from individual polling stations are trickling out but any clear picture is unlikely to emerge before morning. Once the dust of the elections has settled, Pakistan will have to deal with very hard realities: the security situation in Pakistan will not improve without the elimination of the forces loosely labeled as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and neither the army, nor the political parties have yet shown any will to take them on. Not a single political party contesting in this election has openly promised strong actions against the TTP; they have, at best, couched their statement in terms of fight against terrorism. Without improvement in security, Pakistan will not be able to attract investments necessary to undertake basic development projects. Just to take one example, while every candidate has promised to end Pakistan's crippling energy shortage, an honest look at the numbers indicates the gravity of this crisis. Pakistan's power demand currently stands at 16,000 Megawatts while the supply is around 8,000MW, a fifty percent deficit. Pakistan does have enough installed capacity to produce 16,000 MW. Meanwhile, the government's inability to pay for fuel (oil) has resulted in many power plants producing much below their capacity or being completely shutdown. Politically, the Balochs and other ethno nationalists are unlikely to feel enfranchised by this election. While the return of Baloch leader Akhtar Mengal of Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) from abroad to participate in the elections has been welcomed by Islamabad, other Baloch leaders remain skeptical that the central government will ever address their grievances. The last minute boycott of the elections by the President of Jamhoori Watan Party, Tala Akbar Bugti, has caste a further shadow over the Balochistan election. Bringing some sort of order to Karachi, Pakistan's largest and arguable its most dynamic city will also be a most complex challenge that no one party can successful pursue on its own. Dealing with Karachi's highly entrenched and weaponized political groupings will require a joint effort by all major political parties, a Herculean task in cantankerous Pakistan. At another level, there is no reason to think that these elections will change the prevailing balance of power between the military and the civilian government. No matter what future may hold for Pakistan, May 11 th is a hopeful day for the country. Every political party will have to reckon with the intense desire for change in Pakistan that the PTI campaign has been able to tap. The participation of young voters, including many more women, has injected new energy in Pakistani politics that bodes well for the future of democracy. Another hopeful part of these elections that while there is no official or unofficial assessments of the size of voter turn out yet, it has been, as expected, quite heavy. These elections, while unlikely to bring radical changes in Pakistan, are a very important and welcome step in the right direction for the country. Zulfiqar Ahmad is a freelance writer and the president of the US-based Eqbal Ahmad Foundation http://www.telegraphindia.com/1130512/jsp/frontpage/story_16888623.jsp