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Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Quack or quick PM’s task arduous but not much left to lose MANINI CHATTERJEE

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1120307/jsp/frontpage/story_15222749.jsp

Quack or quick

PM's task arduous but not much left to lose

New Delhi, March 6: The beleaguered Manmohan Singh government's hopes of succour from the first round of Assembly elections this year were rudely and comprehensively dashed today as the Congress lost Goa, failed to win back Punjab, struggled in Uttarakhand and finished a miserable fourth in high-stakes Uttar Pradesh.

The victory in Manipur was a tiny ray of sunshine that only served to heighten the darkness enveloping the Grand Old Party and lengthening the shadows over its government at the Centre.

For the Manmohan Singh-led UPA-II, the results could not have come at a worse time. Tainted by mega corruption scams, hemmed in by belligerent allies, cornered by increasingly assertive regional chieftains and widely distrusted by large swathes of civil society, the Prime Minister was desperate for a morale booster before facing the crucial budget session of Parliament next week. The exact opposite has happened.

The Assembly election results are unlikely to have any immediate impact on the numerical stability of the central government (neither the Samajwadi Party, BSP, nor the Trinamul Congress would fancy a mid-term poll right now).

But the dismal showing by the Congress could make it even more difficult for the Prime Minister to win the battle of perceptions and carry out the bold decisions he has kept on hold for most of his second term.

With the economy showing little signs of a recovery, the Prime Minister was keen to unleash some big-ticket reforms in the coming months such as the pending decision on FDI in multi-brand retail, tax reforms, public sector units divestment, power and mining sector initiatives, including a controversial push to civilian nuclear energy.

More than specific decisions, however, it was imperative for the government to change the atmospherics and arrest the state of drift it has been caught in almost from the start of its second term in the summer of 2009.

With more than two years left in office, the Manmohan Singh dispensation has been likened to a lame-duck government for quite some time now — failing to spell out what it stands for if it stands for anything at all.

In sharp contrast to the UPA's first term when it pushed for the National Advisory Council-backed "aam aadmi"-centred initiatives such as MNREGA, RTI, NHRM et al on the one hand and the Indo-US civil nuclear deal on the other, UPA-II has lurched from one crisis to another without any seeming sense of purpose or direction.

The lack of a clear, decisive and vocal leadership has been its bane — Sonia Gandhi has maintained a sphinx-like silence for the most part while Manmohan Singh has been left to fend for himself with Congress leaders treating him as a caretaker administrator till such time that Rahul Gandhi decides to step in.

For the Congress, therefore, today's results have been doubly devastating. The results have shown that sustained campaigns against the "scam-tainted" Congress regime have found an electoral resonance in state after state.

But worse, the drubbing in Uttar Pradesh — where Rahul Gandhi led from the front — has proved that he is no knight in shining armour who can rescue the party from the clutches of the "ineffectual" Manmohan Singh who has no attributes of a mass leader.

Although Congress leaders down the line have been quick to shield Rahul from blame for the Uttar Pradesh debacle, there is deep disappointment in the party that the combined "charm" and "charisma" of Rahul and Priyanka failed to make any impact on the electoral outcome in Uttar Pradesh.

The goodwill for the Congress and praise for Rahul's efforts were not enough to translate into votes in a highly competitive battleground where the Congress parachuted a general but was bereft of foot soldiers.

The Congress, which was expected to win back both Punjab and Uttarakhand, could have blamed the central government's policies and scam-tainted image for its poor showing in the two states in case it had fared well in Uttar Pradesh. But the Uttar Pradesh result, where the Congress managed to win just a handful more than its 2007 tally of 22 seats, can be attributed to the party's own organisational failure — that no amount of Family outings can paper over.

Rahul Gandhi, it is true, repeatedly said he was in Uttar Pradesh for the long haul and his spirited campaign helped set the stage for the anti-Mayawati mood that gripped the state. But ironically, Rahul ended up being the best campaigner for the Samajwadi Party. His speeches against Mayawati's "money-chomping magic elephant" hit home but his party was not seen as strong enough to displace the BSP, helping the Samajwadi Party garner almost the entire anti-incumbency vote.

In one way, the Congress's poor showing in Uttar Pradesh might give more breathing space to the Manmohan Singh dispensation. Even though Rahul and Sonia have repeatedly expressed their faith in the Prime Minister, Congress leaders have not ceased their clamour for a Rahul takeover.

That clamour would have grown manifold in case Rahul had managed to substantially increase the Congress's vote share and seat tally in Uttar Pradesh.

With Rahul iterating that he would continue to focus on Uttar Pradesh, the results notwithstanding, the Prime Minister can concentrate on governance without constantly looking over his shoulder.

Defeat can be demoralising; but it can also be liberating. The Prime Minister and his team can wallow in despair and allow the "policy paralysis" of the last two years to continue — perpetually afraid of rocking a boat that is stuck mid-stream, lest it sink.

Conversely, with nothing much left to lose, he can take tough decisions that will give the economy and the polity some direction even if that means taking on the combined might of the Opposition and disgruntled allies. It might be better to go down fighting than be a legless duck that lasts a full term.


 More stories in Front Page

  • Punjab buries ghost of past
  • Fight to finish in Uttarakhand but BJP loses saviour 
  • Biting dust, bloodied
  • Team A skirts unsavoury facts
  • How Mayawati lost the UP plot
  • Mulayam picks leaf from CPM book
  • BJP gets Goa Catholic vote 
  • PM's task arduous but not much left to lose
 

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