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Date: Sat, Dec 10, 2011 at 7:23 AM
Subject: [bangla-vision] Fw: JFP 12/9: Gingrich: Palestinians an "invented people"; Israel threatens Gaza water cutoff
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Just Foreign Policy News, December 9, 2011
Gingrich: Palestinians an "invented people"; Israel threatens Gaza water cutoff
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I) Actions and Featured Articles
*Action - Tell Congress: Don't Outlaw US Meetings with Iranian Officials
Section 601(c) of HR 1905 - the so-called "Iran Threat Reduction Act" - would prohibit meetings between U.S. officials and Iranian officials deemed a "threat." Ask your Representative to oppose Section 601(c) and HR 1905.
http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/act/hr1905
Could GOP Sanctions on Europe Tank the Economy and Elect Romney?
Why are Congressional Democrats - over the objections of the Obama Administration - helping Republicans press sanctions on Europeans who buy oil from Iran - sanctions that would increase unemployment in the U.S. during the 2012 campaign?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-naiman/gop-sanctions-europe-economy_b_1137095.html
WSJ Video: Human Rights Group Suing Over CIA Drone Program
Lawsuit could force the US to defend targeting low-level people.
http://online.wsj.com/video/human-rights-group-suing-over-cia-drone-program/897383FC-E9AF-4EB3-8E9D-E40CB01AD2C9.html
Howard Berman: grave concern over role of Honduran security forces in human rights abuses
On November 28, Representative Howard Berman, the ranking member on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, sent a letter to Secretary of State Clinton expressing "grave concern" over the role of Honduran security forces in human rights abuses. The letter goes into detail regarding the involvement of Honduran security forces in killings, torture and other crimes and states that it is necessary "to evaluate immediately United States assistance to ensure that we are not, in fact, feeding the beast."
http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/node/1098
UN Dispatch: Secretary of State John Bolton?
Mark Leon Goldberg argues that John Bolton only wasn't more of an extremist as UN Ambassador because he was reined in by Condoleezza Rice. As President Gingrich's Secretary of State, there would be no-one to rein him in.
http://www.undispatch.com/secretary-of-state-john-bolton
Help Support Our Advocacy for Peace and Diplomacy
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II) Summary:
U.S./Top News
1) On Nov. 26, Israel's deputy foreign minister, Danny Ayalon, threatened to cut Israeli electricity, water and ties to Gaza's infrastructure serving the 1.6 million residents of Gaza, Inter Press Service reports. "This is the true meaning of collective punishment," said Jaber Wishah, deputy director for branches affairs at the Palestinian Centre for Human Rights. "Children, women, elderly, patients, students, all are subject to this threat...Israel has been steadily cutting electricity and destroying infrastructure over the years, but this is the first time they have explicitly threatened to fully cut everything," Wishah said.
2) Newt Gingrich called the Palestinians an "invented" people, the New York Times reports. "I think that we've had an invented Palestinian people, who are in fact Arabs, and were historically part of the Arab community. And they had a chance to go many places," Gingrich said. Denying that Palestinians are a people or nation is an argument sometimes used by the far right in Israel, but it is not the mainstream view, the Times notes. "What he's saying is far to the right of the democratically elected Likud leadership of the State of Israel, not to mention established U.S. policy for decades," said David Harris, chief executive of the National Jewish Democratic Council.
Gingrich also described Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, as denying Israel's right to exist and seeking to destroy Israel.
3) Using the format made famous by Harper's Index, CEPR's "Haiti: Relief and Reconstruction Watch" juxtaposes telling statistics about the UN military mission in Haiti. The "index" notes that MINUSTAH's budget dwarfs the money spent by the UN on cholera in Haiti, despite the fact that it was MINUSTAH which caused the cholera outbreak, for which the UN has never accepted responsibility. 65% of Haitians want MINUSTAH gone within a year.
4) The ability of Prime Minister Netanyahu to embark on a preemptive strike against Iran may have been significantly curtailed after a pair of warnings from Defense Secretary Panetta and an ex-Israeli spymaster about the potential negative fallout from such an attack, the Christian Science Monitor reports. "It's extremely unlikely that Israel would attack without American permission. It could put the relationship in danger," says Meir Javedanfar, an Iran expert based in Israel. "I don't think for a minute that they would be so irresponsible…. Israel has never had the option of acting independently against Iran… not since US troops set foot in Iraq."
5) Britain is considering a sharp acceleration in troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Guardian reports. Under the proposal, the number of UK troops in Helmand province would be cut from 9,000 to 5,000 during 2013, and almost the same number would come out the following year. NATO commanders believe that Obama, who will be fighting for re-election next November and is under pressure from Congress to end the campaign, may consider another substantial troop withdrawal, the Guardian says.
6) Latvia's deep recession and slow recovery hold important lessons for other eurozone countries, the Center for Economic and Policy Research says, given that similar policies to those applied in Latvia are now being proposed elsewhere. CEPR notes that Latvia's official unemployment rate rose from 5.3 percent at the end of 2007 to 20.1 percent at peak in early 2010. Even after more than a year of recovery, unemployment remains at 14.4 percent. Taking into account those who are involuntarily working part-time, and those who have given up looking for work, peak unemployment/under-employment was 30.1 percent in 2010, declining to 21.1 percent in the third quarter of 2011. An estimated 120,000 people left the country looking for work in 2009-2011, or 10 percent of the labor force.
Pakistan
7) A senior Pakistani lawmaker said Pakistan may deploy air defense weapons to the Afghan border to prevent future NATO airstrikes such as the ones last month that killed 24 soldiers, AP reports. Pakistan army chief Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani has instructed troops on the ground that they are allowed to strike back against any future incursions without prior approval of top commanders.
Israel/Palestine
8) Secretary of State Clinton says she is concerned about the erosion of democratic values in Israel, Haaretz reports. Clinton instructed Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro to communicate to Israel that the U.S. administration is extremely concerned about legislation restricting NGOs, Haaretz says.
9) The Wall Street Journal quoted a Hamas official saying that Hamas has ordered the departure of nearly all its staff at its Damascus headquarters by next week following pressure from Turkey and Qatar, Ma'an News reports. "Qatar and Turkey urged us to leave Syria immediately," a senior Hamas official was quoted as saying. "They said, 'Have you no shame? It's enough. You have to get out.'"
Iran
10) US drone flights and other intelligence-gathering efforts – which are reported to include even surreptitiously installing radiation detectors at suspect sites in Tehran - have apparently not yielded new evidence that would change conclusions by the US and the UN that Iran stopped systematic nuclear weapons-related work in 2003, the Christian Science Monitor reports. Iran officially complained to the UN Security Council for the "blatant and provocative" violation of its airspace, and demanded "condemnation of such aggressive acts."
Syria
11) Differences over tactics and strategy are generating serious divisions between political and armed opposition factions that are weakening the fight against Assad, the New York Times reports. Earlier this month, the Syrian National Council, and the rebel Free Syrian Army, which is waging an insurgency against the Syrian government, agreed to coordinate their actions. The move followed concerns by some opposition members that the rebel army was undermining the opposition's commitment to nonviolence by carrying out high-profile attacks and feeding the narrative of the Assad government that it was being besieged by a foreign plot.
Iraq
12) Exxon Mobil has defied the instructions of the Iraqi government and signed a deal with the Iraqi Kurds to search for oil in the northern area of Iraq they control, writes Patrick Cockburn in The Independent. Three of the areas Exxon has signed up to explore are on territory the two authorities dispute. Iraqi officials say the US told them it advised Exxon not to sign contracts without the approval of the Iraqi government.
Contents:
U.S./Top News
1) Life Without Water a Growing Threat
Eva Bartlett, Inter Press Service, Dec 9
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=106154
Gaza City - "Taking our water is not like taking a toy. Water is life, they cannot play with our lives like this," says Maher Najjar, deputy general director of the Coastal Municipalities Water Utility (CMWU) of the recent Israeli threat to cut electricity, water and infrastructure services to the occupied Gaza Strip.
"Everything will be affected: drinking and washing water, sewage and sanitation, hospitals, schools and children," says Ahmed al-Amrain, head of power information at the Palestinian Energy and National Resources Authority (PENRA).
The Israeli Electric Company provides 60 percent of the Strip's needs, paid by Palestinian customs taxes collected by the Israeli authorities.
Gaza buys 5 percent from Egypt and tries to generate the remaining 35 percent at Gaza's sole power plant, maimed by the 2006 Israeli bombing and destruction of its six transformers.
On Nov. 26, Israel's deputy foreign minister, Danny Ayalon, threatened to cut Israeli electricity, water and ties to Gaza's infrastructure serving the 1.6 million residents of the Gaza Strip.
"This is the true meaning of collective punishment," says Jaber Wishah, deputy director for branches affairs at the Palestinian Centre for Human Rights (PCHR). "Children, women, elderly, patients, students, all are subject to this threat."
[...]
"Israel has been steadily cutting electricity and destroying infrastructure over the years, but this is the first time they have explicitly threatened to fully cut everything," says Wishah. "It is absurd to blackmail the population with their lives because of political issues."
[...]
Wishah and Israeli rights group Gisha note that Israel continues to militarily occupy and control the Gaza Strip, despite the 2005 pullout of Israeli colonists and military bases from the Strip.
According to international law, Gisha says, Israel is responsible for the well-being of the Strip's population, including ensuring electricity, water and a functioning infrastructure.
Under its siege, Israeli has since 2007 limited the amount of fuel and industrial diesel allowed to enter Gaza, resulting in daily power outages throughout the Strip, ranging from 8 to 12 hours, and interrupting water, sanitation, health and education services.
[...]
2) Gingrich Calls Palestinians an 'Invented' People
Trip Gabriel, New York Times, December 9, 2011, 1:15 PM
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/09/gingrich-calls-palestinians-an-invented-people/
Does Newt Gingrich believe in a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
Democratic and Republican administrations have adopted that framework, but Mr. Gingrich raised the possibility he might break with it, calling Palestinians an "invented" people and the current stalled peace process "delusional."
His comments were made this week in an interview with the Jewish Channel, a cable service.
Discussing the origin of the State of Israel in the 1940s, Mr. Gingrich said, according to a transcript: "Remember there was no Palestine as a state. It was part of the Ottoman Empire. And I think that we've had an invented Palestinian people, who are in fact Arabs, and were historically part of the Arab community. And they had a chance to go many places."
Denying that Palestinians are a people or nation is an argument sometimes used by the far right in Israel, but it is not the mainstream view.
"What he's saying is far to the right of the democratically elected Likud leadership of the State of Israel, not to mention established U.S. policy for decades," said David Harris, chief executive of the National Jewish Democratic Council, an American Jewish group. "This is as clear a demonstration as one needs that he's not ready for prime time."
Mr. Gingrich was applauded this week by a coalition of Jewish Republicans for criticizing the Obama administration's policies in the Middle East as bending too far in favor of Palestinians.
In the interview, Mr. Gingrich said the administration's efforts to deal evenhandedly with Israel and the Palestinians are actually "favoring the terrorists."
"I see a much more tougher-minded and much more honest approach to the Middle East in a Gingrich administration," he said.
He also described Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, as denying Israel's right to exist and seeking - along with Hamas, which the United States considers a terrorist group - to destroy Israel.
"You have Abbas who says in the United Nations, 'We do not necessarily concede Israel's right to exist,'" Mr. Gingrich said.
[...]
Mr. Abbas, who unsuccessfully sought to have a Palestinian state admitted as a member of the United Nations in September, said in his speech at the time that he favored peace talks. In a statement read on his behalf last month at the United Nations, he said, "We do not want and we do not seek to delegitimize Israel by applying for membership in the United Nations, but to delegitimize its settlement activities and the seizure of our occupied lands."
3) MINUSTAH by the Numbers
Haiti: Relief and Reconstruction Watch, CEPR, Thursday, 08 December 2011 14:19
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/relief-and-reconstruction-watch/minustah-by-the-numbers
The United Nations Peacekeeping operation in Haiti, MINUSTAH by its French acronym, has been the target of recent popular protests and a source of controversy because of its role in re-introducing cholera to Haiti, the sexual assault of a young Haitian man and other past abuses. On November 3, 2011 the Institute for Justice and Democracy in Haiti and Bureau des Avocats Internationaux filed a legal complaint on behalf of over 5,000 cholera victims seeking damages from the United Nations. The UN has so far not responded or given a timetable for a response.
Here is MINUSTAH, by the numbers:
Percent of worldwide UN peacekeepers that are in Haiti, despite it not being a war zone: 12.5
Number of MINUSTAH troops (military and police) currently in Haiti: 12,552
Rank in size among the 16 UN peacekeeping operations worldwide: 3
Rank in size of Darfur and the Democratic Republic of Congo, respectively: 1, 2
Percent of Haiti's annual government expenditures to which MINUSTAH's budget is equivalent: 50
Percent of Haiti's GDP to which MINUSTAH's budget is equivalent: 10.7
Total estimated cost of MINUSTAH since the earthquake: $1,556,461,550
Percent of UN peacekeeping operations worldwide funded by the United States: 27
Percent the U.S. has disbursed out of its $1.15 billion pledge at the March 2010 donor conference: 18.8
Percent of the U.S.' contributions to MINUSTAH since the earthquake that this represents: 41
Factor by which MINUSTAH's budget exceeds the amount of funds the UN's cholera appeal has raised: 8
Percent of MINUSTAH's budget it would take to fully fund the UN's cholera appeal: 1.7
Number of days operating expenses it would take to fund a cholera vaccination campaign that would cover the entire country: 18
[...]
Minimum number of people killed from cholera in Haiti since October 2010: 6,908
Number of people killed by homicide in Haiti in 2010: 689
Number of people, per 10 million (roughly the population of Haiti), killed by homicide in Brazil, the largest troop contributor to MINUSTAH: 2,270
Number of cholera victims who filed a claim with the UN seeking damages: 5,000
Number of cholera victims: 513,997
[...]
Years MINUSTAH has been in Haiti: 7
[...]
Date on which cholera was discovered: October 21, 2010
Date the head of MINUSTAH was reported saying it was "really unfair" to accuse the UN of bringing cholera to Haiti: November 22, 2010
Distance, in miles, from the Nepalese MINUSTAH base to the location of the first reported case of cholera: .1
Date on which scientific paper confirmed that Haitian and Nepalese samples of cholera were "almost identical": August 23, 2011
Days since the cholera outbreak it has taken for the UN to accept responsibility: 413 (and counting)
Date on which MINUSTAH's mandate was extended through 2012: October 14, 2011
Percent of Haitians in a recent survey who said they wanted MINUSTAH gone within a year: 65
4) Air strikes against Iran nuclear program? Israel reconsiders.
Israel's former spy chief has warned against a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear program, as has the US, citing its potential to boost Iran's regime at home and endanger US troops in the Middle East.
Joshua Mitnick, Christian Science Monitor, December 9, 2011
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1209/Air-strikes-against-Iran-nuclear-program-Israel-reconsiders
Tel Aviv -
[...]
But the ability of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to embark on a new preemptive strike may have been significantly curtailed after a pair of warnings from US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and an ex-Israeli spymaster about the potential negative fallout from such an attack.
Such predictions raise the political stakes for Israeli leaders contemplating such a move, making it less likely Mr. Netanyahu would lead Israel into battle against Iran without the support of Washington, say analysts.
"If something goes wrong, Netanyahu will be in deep trouble, because he will not be able to argue that he wasn't warned," says Akiva Eldar, a columnist for the liberal newspaper Haaretz. "To take the risk of a confrontation with Iran without clear American support is a big risk; this is something that every Israeli understands."
[...]
The US has engaged in public diplomacy urging Israel to keep that threat off the table while a new round of sanctions takes hold. Mr. Panetta argued last Friday in Washington that such an attack now would deal a blow to the global economy, endanger US troops in the Middle East, and risk shoring up the popularity of the Iranian regime domestically.
At the same time, Meir Dagan, who retired earlier this year as the chief of Israel's Mossad espionage agency, repeated warnings in the Israeli media that a preemptive strike on Iran was liable to spark a regional war in which Israel would sustain heavy damage.
[...]
Dagan challenged another theme often raised by Netanyahu: the widely held belief among Israelis that the Iranian regime is bent on destroying Israel, despite Israel's ability to launch a massive counterattack.
"Iran acts as a rational country. It takes into consideration the fallout for itself, and therefore it isn't in a crazy dash to reach nuclear capability," he said. "I think the people there are sophisticated and smart, and we shouldn't underestimate the Iranians."
The comments highlight an often overlooked school of thinking among Israeli national security experts that object to popular comparisons of the Islamic Republic to Nazi Germany.
"What you mostly hear is that the minute they get an atomic bomb they might use it even though they know the consequences," says Oren Perisco, a media critic for the Seventh Eye, a publication of the Israel Democracy Institute. Israelis are so spooked by this that nearly two-thirds said in a recent survey commissioned by the Brookings Institute they would prefer that both Israel and Iran give up nuclear weapons, Mr. Perisco says.
The Dagan remarks also raise questions about whether a preemptive strike is a "politically viable option," says Meir Javedanfar, an Iran expert based in Israel.
While Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Holocaust denial has earned him an image of an irrational leader among Israelis, Mr. Javedanfar says Israel would be negligent to risk its relations with the US by attacking alone.
"It's extremely unlikely that Israel would attack without American permission. It could put the relationship in danger," he says. "I don't think for a minute that they would be so irresponsible…. Israel has never had the option of acting independently against Iran… not since US troops set foot in Iraq."
5) British troops could leave Afghanistan early
Sharp acceleration of draw-down – in defiance of Nato commanders – one of three options to be considered by PM
Nick Hopkins, Guardian, Thursday 8 December 2011 14.12 EST
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/dec/08/british-troops-leave-afghanistan-early
Up to 4,000 British troops could leave Afghanistan before the end of 2013 under proposals being put before David Cameron at a meeting of the National Security Council next week.
The Guardian has learned that a sharp acceleration in troop withdrawal is one of three options to be considered by the prime minister, and is understood to be favoured by at least two senior members of the cabinet, who want to cut the costs of the decade-long military campaign.
Under the proposal, the number of UK troops in Helmand province would be cut from 9,000 to 5,000 during 2013, and almost the same number would come out the following year – leaving a few hundred in Kabul when Nato ends its combat role in 2014.
But any plans to speed up the pullout would be in defiance of Nato commanders leading the International Security and Assistance Force (Isaf) in Kabul. They have advised a more cautious approach, and are urging all Nato countries – most importantly the US – to delay any further troop withdrawals to the end of 2013, so Nato forces can contribute to another full "fighting season". The troop freeze is deemed important to keep the coalition from fracturing.
A third option to be put before Cameron involves a fudge of these two positions. This would be likely to see a further 2,500 British troops leave Afghanistan in 2013, bringing the total to 6,500.
[...]
But the entire coalition is waiting to see what the White House will do next. Earlier this year, Barack Obama announced that 30,000 American troops would leave Afghanistan this year and next, leaving 68,000 - by far the largest contingent. He is expected to make a further declaration early next year or at the latest during the international conference on Afghanistan in Chicago in May.
Nato commanders believe the president, who will be fighting for re-election next November and is under pressure from Congress to end the campaign, may consider another substantial troop withdrawal.
[...]
6) Latvia's Economic Failure Has Important Lessons for Eurozone, New CEPR Paper Concludes
Record-Breaking Income Decline, Loss of Jobs and Citizens, Slow Recovery Show Downside of "Internal Devaluation"
Center for Economic and Policy Research, December 8, 2011
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/press-releases/press-releases/latvias-economic-failure-has-important-lessons-for-eurozone-new-cepr-paper-concludes
Washington, D.C. - A new paper from the Center for Economic and Policy Research finds that Latvia's deep recession and slow recovery hold important lessons for other eurozone countries that may rely on an "internal devaluation" in an attempt to boost their economies through exports.
"The case of Latvia has important implications for the current debate on the eurozone crisis, since similar pro-cyclical policies are being implemented in a number of countries," CEPR Co-Director, and lead author of the paper, Mark Weisbrot said. "It provides further evidence that 'internal devaluation' – keeping unemployment high, and lowering wages to make the economy more internationally competitive - can be a very costly strategy, and one that does not work.
"The risks in the eurozone are even greater because of the enormous size of the European banking system, and the financial crisis that has resulted from these pro-cyclical policies.
"The risks from the continuation of failed macroeconomic policies in the eurozone are very high for the global economy, which has already slowed as a result of this policy failure," Weisbrot added.
The paper, "Latvia's Internal Devaluation: A Success Story?" finds that Latvia lags well behind other countries that have experienced large, crisis-driven devaluations in recent decades. Most of these were considerably above their pre-devaluation level of GDP three years later, by an average of 6.5 percent. Argentina – which notably pursued policies counter to the kinds of pro-cyclical measures adopted by Latvia – had passed its pre-devaluation GDP by 25.8% three years after the devaluation. Latvia, by contrast, is down 21.3 percent of GDP three years after its crisis started.
The paper also describes the significant, negative impact that Latvia's internal devaluation has had on the country's workforce. The official unemployment rate rose from 5.3 percent at the end of 2007 to 20.1 percent at peak in early 2010. Even after more than a year of recovery, unemployment remains devastatingly high at 14.4 percent.
However, taking into account those who are involuntarily working part-time, and those who have given up looking for work, peak unemployment/under-employment was 30.1 percent in 2010, declining to 21.1 percent in the third quarter of 2011. And this does not include all the people who have left the country in search of work since the crisis began – an estimated 120,000 people in 2009-2011, or 10 percent of the labor force. Had these people not left the country, unemployment/underemployment could have been as high as 29 percent in the third quarter of 2011, instead of 21.1 percent.
"The economic and social costs of Latvia's economic strategy since the global financial crisis and world recession of 2008-2009, of 'internal devaluation,' have been enormous for the people of Latvia," said Weisbrot.
The paper also finds that Latvia's net exports contributed little or nothing to the economic recovery over the past year and a half. This means that "internal devaluation" cannot have succeeded in bringing about the recovery. Rather, it appears that the recovery resulted from the government not adopting the fiscal tightening for 2010 that was prescribed by the IMF, and also from an expansionary monetary policy caused by rising inflation. The data contradict the notion that Latvia's experience provides an example of successful internal devaluation.
Pakistan
7) Pakistani lawmaker: Air defense weapons may be deployed to Afghan border after NATO airstrikes
Associated Press, Friday, December 9, 1:14 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/clinton-says-us-expects-pakistani-president-will-resume-duties-after-medical-tests-in-dubai/2011/12/08/gIQACLKGfO_story.html
Islamabad - Pakistan may deploy air defense weapons to the Afghan border to prevent future NATO airstrikes such as the ones last month that the Pakistani military claims were pre-planned and that killed 24 of the country's soldiers, a senior lawmaker said Friday.
[...]
Maj. Gen. Ashfaq Nadeem, Pakistan's head of military operations, told the Cabinet and the Senate's defense committee Thursday that officials believe the airstrikes were planned and speculated they may have been carried out by the CIA, according to the head of the defense committee, Javed Ashraf Qazi, who attended the briefing.
The CIA is widely despised in Pakistan because of frequent drone strikes targeting militants in Pakistan's tribal region.
Nadeem said the military was considering deploying air defense weapons to the Afghan border to prevent future attacks, according to Qazi.
[...]
Pakistan army chief Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani has instructed troops on the ground that they are allowed to strike back against any future incursions without prior approval of top commanders, Qazi quoted Nadeem as saying.
NATO attacks have killed Pakistani troops at least three different times along the porous and poorly defined border since 2008, but the Nov. 26 incident in the Mohmand tribal area was by far the most deadly.
[...]
Israel/Palestine
8) Clinton warns of Israel's eroding democratic values
The secretary of state explains that she is astonished by the legislative initiatives in favor of restricting left-wing NGOs, as well as by the exclusion of women from public spaces and other phenomena.
Barak Ravid, Haaretz, 03:08 05.12.11
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/clinton-warns-of-israel-s-eroding-democratic-values-1.399543
Three minutes of Q&A at the end of a closed lecture delivered by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Saturday at the Saban Forum in Washington exposed deepening gaps between the governments of Israel and Washington.
If up to now differences between Washington and Jerusalem centered on the peace process or the future of the settlements, it appears that the U.S. government is now worried about whether democratic values are shared by the two states.
A source who was present at Clinton's lecture says that the Secretary of State spoke at length about the Iranian nuclear program, and the need to advance negotiations with the Palestinians. In these connections, the source said, Clinton said little new. The new twist came when she responded to questions. "What does Israel need to do in order to help the U.S. help it?" one of the participants queried.
Clinton, whose long-standing commitment to Israel is not in question, sighed, and launched into a three-minute monologue that related to domestic matters in Israel. The secretary of state, who is considered one of the most popular politicians in the U.S., explained that she is astonished by the legislative initiatives in favor of restricting left-wing NGOs, as well as by the exclusion of women from public spaces and other phenomena.
Clinton claimed that she really cannot understand what is going on in Israel. She said that it's hard for her to grasp how proposals to restrict non-governmental organizations can find their way to the Knesset. In a period when the U.S. is working hard with countries around the world to strengthen their civil sector organizations and structures, Israel appears to be moving in the opposite direction, she suggested. Clinton related that she had read a day before in The Washington Post an article by Ruth Marcus, called "In Israel, Women's Rights Come Under Siege," which detailed examples of the exclusion or boycotting of women, including incidents where IDF religious soldiers have boycotted events in which women sang, and the segregation of women on some bus routes, in contravention of Supreme Court decisions.
The secretary of state related that when she read this report she was reminded of Rosa Parks, the African-American activist who in 1955 refused to yield her seat on a bus to a white man. The boycott of women singing at IDF events reminds her of extremist regimes.
That seems more suited to Iran than Israel, Clinton opined.
[...]
About a week and a half before her lecture at the Saban Forum, Clinton asked U.S. Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro to deliver a message saying that the U.S. administration is extremely concerned about legislation restricting leftist NGOs. Shapiro told Netanyahu's aides that the draft bill is much more extreme than laws in the U.S. and other Western democracies regarding the activities of NGOs.
[...]
9) Report: Hamas seeks 'soft exit' from Syria
Ma'an News, 09/12/2011 14:45
http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=443008
New York -- Hamas has ordered the departure of nearly all its staff at its Damascus headquarters by next week following pressure from Turkey and Qatar, a US newspaper reported Wednesday.
The Wall Street Journal quoted a Hamas official saying the two regional US allies were trying to isolate Syrian President Bashar Assad amid an eight-month crackdown on antiregime protests.
Hamas will establish new headquarters in Cairo and Qatar to replace its operations in Syria, the official told the Journal, apparently on the condition of anonymity.
Because the Islamist movement has a policy of neutrality in dealing with the violence between Assad, a key Hamas supporter, and pro-democracy protesters, members are making a "soft exit," the daily reported.
A Hamas security official was quoted as saying that 90 percent of the party's headquarters staff will be dispersed to cities around the region, leaving behind only a small presence in Damascus.
According to the report, Hamas has for months been slowly "divesting" itself of Syrian assets. These include business investments, real estate and bank deposits, according to the quoted official.
"Qatar and Turkey urged us to leave Syria immediately," a senior Hamas security official in Gaza is quoted as saying. "They said, 'Have you no shame? It's enough. You have to get out.'"
[...]
Iran
10) Downed US drone: How Iran caught the 'beast'
Iran's apparent capture of a largely intact RQ-170 Sentinel spy drone, which was reportedly monitoring Iran's nuclear program, is a significant loss for the US.
Scott Peterson, Christian Science Monitor, December 9, 2011
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1209/Downed-US-drone-How-Iran-caught-the-beast
Istanbul - Iran is pushing the propaganda advantage after showing it captured an intact US stealth drone on a spying mission 140 miles inside Iran.
Hours after Iran state TV displayed the cream-colored American bat-wing RQ-170 "Sentinel" drone – its undercarriage hidden by banners of a US flag, with stars replaced by skulls and marked with anti-US slogans – Iranian officials said the spy craft was proof of enduring US hostility toward Iran.
[...]
US officials confirmed with "high confidence" that the drone displayed by Iran is almost certainly the one reported lost last by US forces in Afghanistan last week. It was on an intelligence mission to hunt evidence in Iran of nuclear weapons work.
Despite those and other intelligence-gathering efforts – which are reported to include even surreptitiously installing radiation detectors at suspect sites in Tehran – the drone flights have apparently not yielded new evidence that would change conclusions by the United States and the United Nations that Iran stopped systematic nuclear weapons-related work in 2003.
[...]
Iran officially complained to the UN Security Council for the "blatant and provocative" violation of its airspace, and demanded "condemnation of such aggressive acts."
[...]
Syria
11) Factional Splits Hinder Drive to Topple Syria Leader
Dan Bilefsky, New York Times, December 8, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/09/world/middleeast/factional-splits-hinder-drive-to-topple-syrias-assad.html
Antakya, Turkey - Even as the government of President Bashar al-Assad intensifies its crackdown inside Syria, differences over tactics and strategy are generating serious divisions between political and armed opposition factions that are weakening the fight against him, senior activists say.
Soldiers and activists close to the rebel Free Syrian Army, which is orchestrating attacks across the border from inside a refugee camp guarded by the Turkish military, said Thursday that tensions were rising with Syria's main opposition group, the Syrian National Council, over its insistence that the rebel army limit itself to defensive action. They said the council moved this month to take control of the rebel group's finances.
[...]
The tensions illustrate what has emerged as one of the key dynamics in the nine-month revolt against Mr. Assad's government: the failure of Syria's opposition to offer a concerted front. The exiled opposition is rife with divisions over personalities and principle. The Free Syrian Army, formed by deserters from the Syrian Army, has emerged as a new force, even as some dissidents question how coordinated it really is. The opposition inside Syria has yet to fully embrace the exiles.
Earlier this month, the Syrian National Council, and the rebel Free Syrian Army, which is waging an insurgency against the Syrian government, agreed to coordinate their actions. The move followed concerns by some opposition members that the rebel army was undermining the opposition's commitment to nonviolence by carrying out high-profile attacks and feeding the narrative of the Assad government that it was being besieged by a foreign plot.
[...]
During an extensive interview with senior members of the Syrian National Council at its newly opened offices in Istanbul, Samir Nashar, a member of the eight-member executive board, said the Free Syrian Army was emerging as the armed force of the Syrian opposition. But he emphasized that the council's support for it was limited to providing financing and humanitarian aid, not weapons. "We want them to stay within the limits of protecting civilians, not to attack the regime," he said. "It is better to coordinate with them than to let them do what they want."
[...]
Iraq
12) Exxon's deal with the Kurds inflames Baghdad
Patrick Cockburn, The Independent, Friday, 09 December 2011
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/exxons-deal-with-the-kurds-inflames-baghdad-6274452.html
The great Iraqi oil rush has started to exacerbate dangerous communal tensions after a major oil company ignored the wishes of the central government in Baghdad and decided to do business with its main regional rival.
The bombshell exploded last month when Exxon Mobil, the world's largest oil company, defied the instructions of the Baghdad government and signed a deal with the Iraqi Kurds to search for oil in the northern area of Iraq they control. To make matters worse, three of the areas Exxon has signed up to explore are on territory the two authorities dispute. The government must now decide if it will retaliate by kicking Exxon out of a giant oilfield it is developing in the south of Iraq.
Political leaders in Baghdad say the company is putting the unity of their country at risk. Hussain Shahristani, the Deputy Prime Minister in charge of energy matters, told The Independent in an interview in Baghdad that any oil or gas field development contract in Iraq "needs the approval of the federal government, and any contract that has not been presented to the federal government has no standing and the companies are not advised to work on Iraqi territory in breach of Iraqi laws".
Baghdad has had oil disputes before with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), but the present row is far more serious because it is the first time "Big Oil" has moved into Kurdistan, showing that at least one of the major oil companies is prepared to disregard threats from the government of Nouri al-Maliki. Previously, only small independent foreign oil companies, without other interests to protect in the rest of the country, have risked signing contracts with the Kurds.
"Exxon Mobil was aware of the position of the Iraqi government," says Mr Shahristani, a former nuclear scientist who was tortured and imprisoned by Saddam Hussein. "We hear from the American government that they've advised all American companies, including Exxon Mobil, that contracts should not be signed without the approval of the federal government."
Whatever the prospects of finding oil in the north of Iraq, observers are surprised that Exxon is prepared to hang its future in Iraq on the outcome of the power struggle between Iraqi Kurdistan and the central government. Control of the right to explore for oil and exploit it is crucial to the authorities on both sides since they have virtually no other source of revenue.
[...]
What makes the Exxon-KRG deal particularly inflammatory, says Mr Shahristani, is that three of the six blocs where Exxon is planning to drill are understood to be "across the blue line – that is outside the border of the KRG". This means they are in the large areas in northern Iraq disputed between Arabs and Kurds since 2003, but where the Kurds have military control.
[...]
-
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Gingrich: Palestinians an "invented people"; Israel threatens Gaza water cutoff
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I) Actions and Featured Articles
*Action - Tell Congress: Don't Outlaw US Meetings with Iranian Officials
Section 601(c) of HR 1905 - the so-called "Iran Threat Reduction Act" - would prohibit meetings between U.S. officials and Iranian officials deemed a "threat." Ask your Representative to oppose Section 601(c) and HR 1905.
http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/act/hr1905
Could GOP Sanctions on Europe Tank the Economy and Elect Romney?
Why are Congressional Democrats - over the objections of the Obama Administration - helping Republicans press sanctions on Europeans who buy oil from Iran - sanctions that would increase unemployment in the U.S. during the 2012 campaign?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-naiman/gop-sanctions-europe-economy_b_1137095.html
WSJ Video: Human Rights Group Suing Over CIA Drone Program
Lawsuit could force the US to defend targeting low-level people.
http://online.wsj.com/video/human-rights-group-suing-over-cia-drone-program/897383FC-E9AF-4EB3-8E9D-E40CB01AD2C9.html
Howard Berman: grave concern over role of Honduran security forces in human rights abuses
On November 28, Representative Howard Berman, the ranking member on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, sent a letter to Secretary of State Clinton expressing "grave concern" over the role of Honduran security forces in human rights abuses. The letter goes into detail regarding the involvement of Honduran security forces in killings, torture and other crimes and states that it is necessary "to evaluate immediately United States assistance to ensure that we are not, in fact, feeding the beast."
http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/node/1098
UN Dispatch: Secretary of State John Bolton?
Mark Leon Goldberg argues that John Bolton only wasn't more of an extremist as UN Ambassador because he was reined in by Condoleezza Rice. As President Gingrich's Secretary of State, there would be no-one to rein him in.
http://www.undispatch.com/secretary-of-state-john-bolton
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II) Summary:
U.S./Top News
1) On Nov. 26, Israel's deputy foreign minister, Danny Ayalon, threatened to cut Israeli electricity, water and ties to Gaza's infrastructure serving the 1.6 million residents of Gaza, Inter Press Service reports. "This is the true meaning of collective punishment," said Jaber Wishah, deputy director for branches affairs at the Palestinian Centre for Human Rights. "Children, women, elderly, patients, students, all are subject to this threat...Israel has been steadily cutting electricity and destroying infrastructure over the years, but this is the first time they have explicitly threatened to fully cut everything," Wishah said.
2) Newt Gingrich called the Palestinians an "invented" people, the New York Times reports. "I think that we've had an invented Palestinian people, who are in fact Arabs, and were historically part of the Arab community. And they had a chance to go many places," Gingrich said. Denying that Palestinians are a people or nation is an argument sometimes used by the far right in Israel, but it is not the mainstream view, the Times notes. "What he's saying is far to the right of the democratically elected Likud leadership of the State of Israel, not to mention established U.S. policy for decades," said David Harris, chief executive of the National Jewish Democratic Council.
Gingrich also described Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, as denying Israel's right to exist and seeking to destroy Israel.
3) Using the format made famous by Harper's Index, CEPR's "Haiti: Relief and Reconstruction Watch" juxtaposes telling statistics about the UN military mission in Haiti. The "index" notes that MINUSTAH's budget dwarfs the money spent by the UN on cholera in Haiti, despite the fact that it was MINUSTAH which caused the cholera outbreak, for which the UN has never accepted responsibility. 65% of Haitians want MINUSTAH gone within a year.
4) The ability of Prime Minister Netanyahu to embark on a preemptive strike against Iran may have been significantly curtailed after a pair of warnings from Defense Secretary Panetta and an ex-Israeli spymaster about the potential negative fallout from such an attack, the Christian Science Monitor reports. "It's extremely unlikely that Israel would attack without American permission. It could put the relationship in danger," says Meir Javedanfar, an Iran expert based in Israel. "I don't think for a minute that they would be so irresponsible…. Israel has never had the option of acting independently against Iran… not since US troops set foot in Iraq."
5) Britain is considering a sharp acceleration in troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Guardian reports. Under the proposal, the number of UK troops in Helmand province would be cut from 9,000 to 5,000 during 2013, and almost the same number would come out the following year. NATO commanders believe that Obama, who will be fighting for re-election next November and is under pressure from Congress to end the campaign, may consider another substantial troop withdrawal, the Guardian says.
6) Latvia's deep recession and slow recovery hold important lessons for other eurozone countries, the Center for Economic and Policy Research says, given that similar policies to those applied in Latvia are now being proposed elsewhere. CEPR notes that Latvia's official unemployment rate rose from 5.3 percent at the end of 2007 to 20.1 percent at peak in early 2010. Even after more than a year of recovery, unemployment remains at 14.4 percent. Taking into account those who are involuntarily working part-time, and those who have given up looking for work, peak unemployment/under-employment was 30.1 percent in 2010, declining to 21.1 percent in the third quarter of 2011. An estimated 120,000 people left the country looking for work in 2009-2011, or 10 percent of the labor force.
Pakistan
7) A senior Pakistani lawmaker said Pakistan may deploy air defense weapons to the Afghan border to prevent future NATO airstrikes such as the ones last month that killed 24 soldiers, AP reports. Pakistan army chief Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani has instructed troops on the ground that they are allowed to strike back against any future incursions without prior approval of top commanders.
Israel/Palestine
8) Secretary of State Clinton says she is concerned about the erosion of democratic values in Israel, Haaretz reports. Clinton instructed Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro to communicate to Israel that the U.S. administration is extremely concerned about legislation restricting NGOs, Haaretz says.
9) The Wall Street Journal quoted a Hamas official saying that Hamas has ordered the departure of nearly all its staff at its Damascus headquarters by next week following pressure from Turkey and Qatar, Ma'an News reports. "Qatar and Turkey urged us to leave Syria immediately," a senior Hamas official was quoted as saying. "They said, 'Have you no shame? It's enough. You have to get out.'"
Iran
10) US drone flights and other intelligence-gathering efforts – which are reported to include even surreptitiously installing radiation detectors at suspect sites in Tehran - have apparently not yielded new evidence that would change conclusions by the US and the UN that Iran stopped systematic nuclear weapons-related work in 2003, the Christian Science Monitor reports. Iran officially complained to the UN Security Council for the "blatant and provocative" violation of its airspace, and demanded "condemnation of such aggressive acts."
Syria
11) Differences over tactics and strategy are generating serious divisions between political and armed opposition factions that are weakening the fight against Assad, the New York Times reports. Earlier this month, the Syrian National Council, and the rebel Free Syrian Army, which is waging an insurgency against the Syrian government, agreed to coordinate their actions. The move followed concerns by some opposition members that the rebel army was undermining the opposition's commitment to nonviolence by carrying out high-profile attacks and feeding the narrative of the Assad government that it was being besieged by a foreign plot.
Iraq
12) Exxon Mobil has defied the instructions of the Iraqi government and signed a deal with the Iraqi Kurds to search for oil in the northern area of Iraq they control, writes Patrick Cockburn in The Independent. Three of the areas Exxon has signed up to explore are on territory the two authorities dispute. Iraqi officials say the US told them it advised Exxon not to sign contracts without the approval of the Iraqi government.
Contents:
U.S./Top News
1) Life Without Water a Growing Threat
Eva Bartlett, Inter Press Service, Dec 9
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=106154
Gaza City - "Taking our water is not like taking a toy. Water is life, they cannot play with our lives like this," says Maher Najjar, deputy general director of the Coastal Municipalities Water Utility (CMWU) of the recent Israeli threat to cut electricity, water and infrastructure services to the occupied Gaza Strip.
"Everything will be affected: drinking and washing water, sewage and sanitation, hospitals, schools and children," says Ahmed al-Amrain, head of power information at the Palestinian Energy and National Resources Authority (PENRA).
The Israeli Electric Company provides 60 percent of the Strip's needs, paid by Palestinian customs taxes collected by the Israeli authorities.
Gaza buys 5 percent from Egypt and tries to generate the remaining 35 percent at Gaza's sole power plant, maimed by the 2006 Israeli bombing and destruction of its six transformers.
On Nov. 26, Israel's deputy foreign minister, Danny Ayalon, threatened to cut Israeli electricity, water and ties to Gaza's infrastructure serving the 1.6 million residents of the Gaza Strip.
"This is the true meaning of collective punishment," says Jaber Wishah, deputy director for branches affairs at the Palestinian Centre for Human Rights (PCHR). "Children, women, elderly, patients, students, all are subject to this threat."
[...]
"Israel has been steadily cutting electricity and destroying infrastructure over the years, but this is the first time they have explicitly threatened to fully cut everything," says Wishah. "It is absurd to blackmail the population with their lives because of political issues."
[...]
Wishah and Israeli rights group Gisha note that Israel continues to militarily occupy and control the Gaza Strip, despite the 2005 pullout of Israeli colonists and military bases from the Strip.
According to international law, Gisha says, Israel is responsible for the well-being of the Strip's population, including ensuring electricity, water and a functioning infrastructure.
Under its siege, Israeli has since 2007 limited the amount of fuel and industrial diesel allowed to enter Gaza, resulting in daily power outages throughout the Strip, ranging from 8 to 12 hours, and interrupting water, sanitation, health and education services.
[...]
2) Gingrich Calls Palestinians an 'Invented' People
Trip Gabriel, New York Times, December 9, 2011, 1:15 PM
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/09/gingrich-calls-palestinians-an-invented-people/
Does Newt Gingrich believe in a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
Democratic and Republican administrations have adopted that framework, but Mr. Gingrich raised the possibility he might break with it, calling Palestinians an "invented" people and the current stalled peace process "delusional."
His comments were made this week in an interview with the Jewish Channel, a cable service.
Discussing the origin of the State of Israel in the 1940s, Mr. Gingrich said, according to a transcript: "Remember there was no Palestine as a state. It was part of the Ottoman Empire. And I think that we've had an invented Palestinian people, who are in fact Arabs, and were historically part of the Arab community. And they had a chance to go many places."
Denying that Palestinians are a people or nation is an argument sometimes used by the far right in Israel, but it is not the mainstream view.
"What he's saying is far to the right of the democratically elected Likud leadership of the State of Israel, not to mention established U.S. policy for decades," said David Harris, chief executive of the National Jewish Democratic Council, an American Jewish group. "This is as clear a demonstration as one needs that he's not ready for prime time."
Mr. Gingrich was applauded this week by a coalition of Jewish Republicans for criticizing the Obama administration's policies in the Middle East as bending too far in favor of Palestinians.
In the interview, Mr. Gingrich said the administration's efforts to deal evenhandedly with Israel and the Palestinians are actually "favoring the terrorists."
"I see a much more tougher-minded and much more honest approach to the Middle East in a Gingrich administration," he said.
He also described Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, as denying Israel's right to exist and seeking - along with Hamas, which the United States considers a terrorist group - to destroy Israel.
"You have Abbas who says in the United Nations, 'We do not necessarily concede Israel's right to exist,'" Mr. Gingrich said.
[...]
Mr. Abbas, who unsuccessfully sought to have a Palestinian state admitted as a member of the United Nations in September, said in his speech at the time that he favored peace talks. In a statement read on his behalf last month at the United Nations, he said, "We do not want and we do not seek to delegitimize Israel by applying for membership in the United Nations, but to delegitimize its settlement activities and the seizure of our occupied lands."
3) MINUSTAH by the Numbers
Haiti: Relief and Reconstruction Watch, CEPR, Thursday, 08 December 2011 14:19
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/relief-and-reconstruction-watch/minustah-by-the-numbers
The United Nations Peacekeeping operation in Haiti, MINUSTAH by its French acronym, has been the target of recent popular protests and a source of controversy because of its role in re-introducing cholera to Haiti, the sexual assault of a young Haitian man and other past abuses. On November 3, 2011 the Institute for Justice and Democracy in Haiti and Bureau des Avocats Internationaux filed a legal complaint on behalf of over 5,000 cholera victims seeking damages from the United Nations. The UN has so far not responded or given a timetable for a response.
Here is MINUSTAH, by the numbers:
Percent of worldwide UN peacekeepers that are in Haiti, despite it not being a war zone: 12.5
Number of MINUSTAH troops (military and police) currently in Haiti: 12,552
Rank in size among the 16 UN peacekeeping operations worldwide: 3
Rank in size of Darfur and the Democratic Republic of Congo, respectively: 1, 2
Percent of Haiti's annual government expenditures to which MINUSTAH's budget is equivalent: 50
Percent of Haiti's GDP to which MINUSTAH's budget is equivalent: 10.7
Total estimated cost of MINUSTAH since the earthquake: $1,556,461,550
Percent of UN peacekeeping operations worldwide funded by the United States: 27
Percent the U.S. has disbursed out of its $1.15 billion pledge at the March 2010 donor conference: 18.8
Percent of the U.S.' contributions to MINUSTAH since the earthquake that this represents: 41
Factor by which MINUSTAH's budget exceeds the amount of funds the UN's cholera appeal has raised: 8
Percent of MINUSTAH's budget it would take to fully fund the UN's cholera appeal: 1.7
Number of days operating expenses it would take to fund a cholera vaccination campaign that would cover the entire country: 18
[...]
Minimum number of people killed from cholera in Haiti since October 2010: 6,908
Number of people killed by homicide in Haiti in 2010: 689
Number of people, per 10 million (roughly the population of Haiti), killed by homicide in Brazil, the largest troop contributor to MINUSTAH: 2,270
Number of cholera victims who filed a claim with the UN seeking damages: 5,000
Number of cholera victims: 513,997
[...]
Years MINUSTAH has been in Haiti: 7
[...]
Date on which cholera was discovered: October 21, 2010
Date the head of MINUSTAH was reported saying it was "really unfair" to accuse the UN of bringing cholera to Haiti: November 22, 2010
Distance, in miles, from the Nepalese MINUSTAH base to the location of the first reported case of cholera: .1
Date on which scientific paper confirmed that Haitian and Nepalese samples of cholera were "almost identical": August 23, 2011
Days since the cholera outbreak it has taken for the UN to accept responsibility: 413 (and counting)
Date on which MINUSTAH's mandate was extended through 2012: October 14, 2011
Percent of Haitians in a recent survey who said they wanted MINUSTAH gone within a year: 65
4) Air strikes against Iran nuclear program? Israel reconsiders.
Israel's former spy chief has warned against a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear program, as has the US, citing its potential to boost Iran's regime at home and endanger US troops in the Middle East.
Joshua Mitnick, Christian Science Monitor, December 9, 2011
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1209/Air-strikes-against-Iran-nuclear-program-Israel-reconsiders
Tel Aviv -
[...]
But the ability of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to embark on a new preemptive strike may have been significantly curtailed after a pair of warnings from US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and an ex-Israeli spymaster about the potential negative fallout from such an attack.
Such predictions raise the political stakes for Israeli leaders contemplating such a move, making it less likely Mr. Netanyahu would lead Israel into battle against Iran without the support of Washington, say analysts.
"If something goes wrong, Netanyahu will be in deep trouble, because he will not be able to argue that he wasn't warned," says Akiva Eldar, a columnist for the liberal newspaper Haaretz. "To take the risk of a confrontation with Iran without clear American support is a big risk; this is something that every Israeli understands."
[...]
The US has engaged in public diplomacy urging Israel to keep that threat off the table while a new round of sanctions takes hold. Mr. Panetta argued last Friday in Washington that such an attack now would deal a blow to the global economy, endanger US troops in the Middle East, and risk shoring up the popularity of the Iranian regime domestically.
At the same time, Meir Dagan, who retired earlier this year as the chief of Israel's Mossad espionage agency, repeated warnings in the Israeli media that a preemptive strike on Iran was liable to spark a regional war in which Israel would sustain heavy damage.
[...]
Dagan challenged another theme often raised by Netanyahu: the widely held belief among Israelis that the Iranian regime is bent on destroying Israel, despite Israel's ability to launch a massive counterattack.
"Iran acts as a rational country. It takes into consideration the fallout for itself, and therefore it isn't in a crazy dash to reach nuclear capability," he said. "I think the people there are sophisticated and smart, and we shouldn't underestimate the Iranians."
The comments highlight an often overlooked school of thinking among Israeli national security experts that object to popular comparisons of the Islamic Republic to Nazi Germany.
"What you mostly hear is that the minute they get an atomic bomb they might use it even though they know the consequences," says Oren Perisco, a media critic for the Seventh Eye, a publication of the Israel Democracy Institute. Israelis are so spooked by this that nearly two-thirds said in a recent survey commissioned by the Brookings Institute they would prefer that both Israel and Iran give up nuclear weapons, Mr. Perisco says.
The Dagan remarks also raise questions about whether a preemptive strike is a "politically viable option," says Meir Javedanfar, an Iran expert based in Israel.
While Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Holocaust denial has earned him an image of an irrational leader among Israelis, Mr. Javedanfar says Israel would be negligent to risk its relations with the US by attacking alone.
"It's extremely unlikely that Israel would attack without American permission. It could put the relationship in danger," he says. "I don't think for a minute that they would be so irresponsible…. Israel has never had the option of acting independently against Iran… not since US troops set foot in Iraq."
5) British troops could leave Afghanistan early
Sharp acceleration of draw-down – in defiance of Nato commanders – one of three options to be considered by PM
Nick Hopkins, Guardian, Thursday 8 December 2011 14.12 EST
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/dec/08/british-troops-leave-afghanistan-early
Up to 4,000 British troops could leave Afghanistan before the end of 2013 under proposals being put before David Cameron at a meeting of the National Security Council next week.
The Guardian has learned that a sharp acceleration in troop withdrawal is one of three options to be considered by the prime minister, and is understood to be favoured by at least two senior members of the cabinet, who want to cut the costs of the decade-long military campaign.
Under the proposal, the number of UK troops in Helmand province would be cut from 9,000 to 5,000 during 2013, and almost the same number would come out the following year – leaving a few hundred in Kabul when Nato ends its combat role in 2014.
But any plans to speed up the pullout would be in defiance of Nato commanders leading the International Security and Assistance Force (Isaf) in Kabul. They have advised a more cautious approach, and are urging all Nato countries – most importantly the US – to delay any further troop withdrawals to the end of 2013, so Nato forces can contribute to another full "fighting season". The troop freeze is deemed important to keep the coalition from fracturing.
A third option to be put before Cameron involves a fudge of these two positions. This would be likely to see a further 2,500 British troops leave Afghanistan in 2013, bringing the total to 6,500.
[...]
But the entire coalition is waiting to see what the White House will do next. Earlier this year, Barack Obama announced that 30,000 American troops would leave Afghanistan this year and next, leaving 68,000 - by far the largest contingent. He is expected to make a further declaration early next year or at the latest during the international conference on Afghanistan in Chicago in May.
Nato commanders believe the president, who will be fighting for re-election next November and is under pressure from Congress to end the campaign, may consider another substantial troop withdrawal.
[...]
6) Latvia's Economic Failure Has Important Lessons for Eurozone, New CEPR Paper Concludes
Record-Breaking Income Decline, Loss of Jobs and Citizens, Slow Recovery Show Downside of "Internal Devaluation"
Center for Economic and Policy Research, December 8, 2011
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/press-releases/press-releases/latvias-economic-failure-has-important-lessons-for-eurozone-new-cepr-paper-concludes
Washington, D.C. - A new paper from the Center for Economic and Policy Research finds that Latvia's deep recession and slow recovery hold important lessons for other eurozone countries that may rely on an "internal devaluation" in an attempt to boost their economies through exports.
"The case of Latvia has important implications for the current debate on the eurozone crisis, since similar pro-cyclical policies are being implemented in a number of countries," CEPR Co-Director, and lead author of the paper, Mark Weisbrot said. "It provides further evidence that 'internal devaluation' – keeping unemployment high, and lowering wages to make the economy more internationally competitive - can be a very costly strategy, and one that does not work.
"The risks in the eurozone are even greater because of the enormous size of the European banking system, and the financial crisis that has resulted from these pro-cyclical policies.
"The risks from the continuation of failed macroeconomic policies in the eurozone are very high for the global economy, which has already slowed as a result of this policy failure," Weisbrot added.
The paper, "Latvia's Internal Devaluation: A Success Story?" finds that Latvia lags well behind other countries that have experienced large, crisis-driven devaluations in recent decades. Most of these were considerably above their pre-devaluation level of GDP three years later, by an average of 6.5 percent. Argentina – which notably pursued policies counter to the kinds of pro-cyclical measures adopted by Latvia – had passed its pre-devaluation GDP by 25.8% three years after the devaluation. Latvia, by contrast, is down 21.3 percent of GDP three years after its crisis started.
The paper also describes the significant, negative impact that Latvia's internal devaluation has had on the country's workforce. The official unemployment rate rose from 5.3 percent at the end of 2007 to 20.1 percent at peak in early 2010. Even after more than a year of recovery, unemployment remains devastatingly high at 14.4 percent.
However, taking into account those who are involuntarily working part-time, and those who have given up looking for work, peak unemployment/under-employment was 30.1 percent in 2010, declining to 21.1 percent in the third quarter of 2011. And this does not include all the people who have left the country in search of work since the crisis began – an estimated 120,000 people in 2009-2011, or 10 percent of the labor force. Had these people not left the country, unemployment/underemployment could have been as high as 29 percent in the third quarter of 2011, instead of 21.1 percent.
"The economic and social costs of Latvia's economic strategy since the global financial crisis and world recession of 2008-2009, of 'internal devaluation,' have been enormous for the people of Latvia," said Weisbrot.
The paper also finds that Latvia's net exports contributed little or nothing to the economic recovery over the past year and a half. This means that "internal devaluation" cannot have succeeded in bringing about the recovery. Rather, it appears that the recovery resulted from the government not adopting the fiscal tightening for 2010 that was prescribed by the IMF, and also from an expansionary monetary policy caused by rising inflation. The data contradict the notion that Latvia's experience provides an example of successful internal devaluation.
Pakistan
7) Pakistani lawmaker: Air defense weapons may be deployed to Afghan border after NATO airstrikes
Associated Press, Friday, December 9, 1:14 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/clinton-says-us-expects-pakistani-president-will-resume-duties-after-medical-tests-in-dubai/2011/12/08/gIQACLKGfO_story.html
Islamabad - Pakistan may deploy air defense weapons to the Afghan border to prevent future NATO airstrikes such as the ones last month that the Pakistani military claims were pre-planned and that killed 24 of the country's soldiers, a senior lawmaker said Friday.
[...]
Maj. Gen. Ashfaq Nadeem, Pakistan's head of military operations, told the Cabinet and the Senate's defense committee Thursday that officials believe the airstrikes were planned and speculated they may have been carried out by the CIA, according to the head of the defense committee, Javed Ashraf Qazi, who attended the briefing.
The CIA is widely despised in Pakistan because of frequent drone strikes targeting militants in Pakistan's tribal region.
Nadeem said the military was considering deploying air defense weapons to the Afghan border to prevent future attacks, according to Qazi.
[...]
Pakistan army chief Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani has instructed troops on the ground that they are allowed to strike back against any future incursions without prior approval of top commanders, Qazi quoted Nadeem as saying.
NATO attacks have killed Pakistani troops at least three different times along the porous and poorly defined border since 2008, but the Nov. 26 incident in the Mohmand tribal area was by far the most deadly.
[...]
Israel/Palestine
8) Clinton warns of Israel's eroding democratic values
The secretary of state explains that she is astonished by the legislative initiatives in favor of restricting left-wing NGOs, as well as by the exclusion of women from public spaces and other phenomena.
Barak Ravid, Haaretz, 03:08 05.12.11
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/clinton-warns-of-israel-s-eroding-democratic-values-1.399543
Three minutes of Q&A at the end of a closed lecture delivered by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Saturday at the Saban Forum in Washington exposed deepening gaps between the governments of Israel and Washington.
If up to now differences between Washington and Jerusalem centered on the peace process or the future of the settlements, it appears that the U.S. government is now worried about whether democratic values are shared by the two states.
A source who was present at Clinton's lecture says that the Secretary of State spoke at length about the Iranian nuclear program, and the need to advance negotiations with the Palestinians. In these connections, the source said, Clinton said little new. The new twist came when she responded to questions. "What does Israel need to do in order to help the U.S. help it?" one of the participants queried.
Clinton, whose long-standing commitment to Israel is not in question, sighed, and launched into a three-minute monologue that related to domestic matters in Israel. The secretary of state, who is considered one of the most popular politicians in the U.S., explained that she is astonished by the legislative initiatives in favor of restricting left-wing NGOs, as well as by the exclusion of women from public spaces and other phenomena.
Clinton claimed that she really cannot understand what is going on in Israel. She said that it's hard for her to grasp how proposals to restrict non-governmental organizations can find their way to the Knesset. In a period when the U.S. is working hard with countries around the world to strengthen their civil sector organizations and structures, Israel appears to be moving in the opposite direction, she suggested. Clinton related that she had read a day before in The Washington Post an article by Ruth Marcus, called "In Israel, Women's Rights Come Under Siege," which detailed examples of the exclusion or boycotting of women, including incidents where IDF religious soldiers have boycotted events in which women sang, and the segregation of women on some bus routes, in contravention of Supreme Court decisions.
The secretary of state related that when she read this report she was reminded of Rosa Parks, the African-American activist who in 1955 refused to yield her seat on a bus to a white man. The boycott of women singing at IDF events reminds her of extremist regimes.
That seems more suited to Iran than Israel, Clinton opined.
[...]
About a week and a half before her lecture at the Saban Forum, Clinton asked U.S. Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro to deliver a message saying that the U.S. administration is extremely concerned about legislation restricting leftist NGOs. Shapiro told Netanyahu's aides that the draft bill is much more extreme than laws in the U.S. and other Western democracies regarding the activities of NGOs.
[...]
9) Report: Hamas seeks 'soft exit' from Syria
Ma'an News, 09/12/2011 14:45
http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=443008
New York -- Hamas has ordered the departure of nearly all its staff at its Damascus headquarters by next week following pressure from Turkey and Qatar, a US newspaper reported Wednesday.
The Wall Street Journal quoted a Hamas official saying the two regional US allies were trying to isolate Syrian President Bashar Assad amid an eight-month crackdown on antiregime protests.
Hamas will establish new headquarters in Cairo and Qatar to replace its operations in Syria, the official told the Journal, apparently on the condition of anonymity.
Because the Islamist movement has a policy of neutrality in dealing with the violence between Assad, a key Hamas supporter, and pro-democracy protesters, members are making a "soft exit," the daily reported.
A Hamas security official was quoted as saying that 90 percent of the party's headquarters staff will be dispersed to cities around the region, leaving behind only a small presence in Damascus.
According to the report, Hamas has for months been slowly "divesting" itself of Syrian assets. These include business investments, real estate and bank deposits, according to the quoted official.
"Qatar and Turkey urged us to leave Syria immediately," a senior Hamas security official in Gaza is quoted as saying. "They said, 'Have you no shame? It's enough. You have to get out.'"
[...]
Iran
10) Downed US drone: How Iran caught the 'beast'
Iran's apparent capture of a largely intact RQ-170 Sentinel spy drone, which was reportedly monitoring Iran's nuclear program, is a significant loss for the US.
Scott Peterson, Christian Science Monitor, December 9, 2011
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1209/Downed-US-drone-How-Iran-caught-the-beast
Istanbul - Iran is pushing the propaganda advantage after showing it captured an intact US stealth drone on a spying mission 140 miles inside Iran.
Hours after Iran state TV displayed the cream-colored American bat-wing RQ-170 "Sentinel" drone – its undercarriage hidden by banners of a US flag, with stars replaced by skulls and marked with anti-US slogans – Iranian officials said the spy craft was proof of enduring US hostility toward Iran.
[...]
US officials confirmed with "high confidence" that the drone displayed by Iran is almost certainly the one reported lost last by US forces in Afghanistan last week. It was on an intelligence mission to hunt evidence in Iran of nuclear weapons work.
Despite those and other intelligence-gathering efforts – which are reported to include even surreptitiously installing radiation detectors at suspect sites in Tehran – the drone flights have apparently not yielded new evidence that would change conclusions by the United States and the United Nations that Iran stopped systematic nuclear weapons-related work in 2003.
[...]
Iran officially complained to the UN Security Council for the "blatant and provocative" violation of its airspace, and demanded "condemnation of such aggressive acts."
[...]
Syria
11) Factional Splits Hinder Drive to Topple Syria Leader
Dan Bilefsky, New York Times, December 8, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/09/world/middleeast/factional-splits-hinder-drive-to-topple-syrias-assad.html
Antakya, Turkey - Even as the government of President Bashar al-Assad intensifies its crackdown inside Syria, differences over tactics and strategy are generating serious divisions between political and armed opposition factions that are weakening the fight against him, senior activists say.
Soldiers and activists close to the rebel Free Syrian Army, which is orchestrating attacks across the border from inside a refugee camp guarded by the Turkish military, said Thursday that tensions were rising with Syria's main opposition group, the Syrian National Council, over its insistence that the rebel army limit itself to defensive action. They said the council moved this month to take control of the rebel group's finances.
[...]
The tensions illustrate what has emerged as one of the key dynamics in the nine-month revolt against Mr. Assad's government: the failure of Syria's opposition to offer a concerted front. The exiled opposition is rife with divisions over personalities and principle. The Free Syrian Army, formed by deserters from the Syrian Army, has emerged as a new force, even as some dissidents question how coordinated it really is. The opposition inside Syria has yet to fully embrace the exiles.
Earlier this month, the Syrian National Council, and the rebel Free Syrian Army, which is waging an insurgency against the Syrian government, agreed to coordinate their actions. The move followed concerns by some opposition members that the rebel army was undermining the opposition's commitment to nonviolence by carrying out high-profile attacks and feeding the narrative of the Assad government that it was being besieged by a foreign plot.
[...]
During an extensive interview with senior members of the Syrian National Council at its newly opened offices in Istanbul, Samir Nashar, a member of the eight-member executive board, said the Free Syrian Army was emerging as the armed force of the Syrian opposition. But he emphasized that the council's support for it was limited to providing financing and humanitarian aid, not weapons. "We want them to stay within the limits of protecting civilians, not to attack the regime," he said. "It is better to coordinate with them than to let them do what they want."
[...]
Iraq
12) Exxon's deal with the Kurds inflames Baghdad
Patrick Cockburn, The Independent, Friday, 09 December 2011
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/exxons-deal-with-the-kurds-inflames-baghdad-6274452.html
The great Iraqi oil rush has started to exacerbate dangerous communal tensions after a major oil company ignored the wishes of the central government in Baghdad and decided to do business with its main regional rival.
The bombshell exploded last month when Exxon Mobil, the world's largest oil company, defied the instructions of the Baghdad government and signed a deal with the Iraqi Kurds to search for oil in the northern area of Iraq they control. To make matters worse, three of the areas Exxon has signed up to explore are on territory the two authorities dispute. The government must now decide if it will retaliate by kicking Exxon out of a giant oilfield it is developing in the south of Iraq.
Political leaders in Baghdad say the company is putting the unity of their country at risk. Hussain Shahristani, the Deputy Prime Minister in charge of energy matters, told The Independent in an interview in Baghdad that any oil or gas field development contract in Iraq "needs the approval of the federal government, and any contract that has not been presented to the federal government has no standing and the companies are not advised to work on Iraqi territory in breach of Iraqi laws".
Baghdad has had oil disputes before with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), but the present row is far more serious because it is the first time "Big Oil" has moved into Kurdistan, showing that at least one of the major oil companies is prepared to disregard threats from the government of Nouri al-Maliki. Previously, only small independent foreign oil companies, without other interests to protect in the rest of the country, have risked signing contracts with the Kurds.
"Exxon Mobil was aware of the position of the Iraqi government," says Mr Shahristani, a former nuclear scientist who was tortured and imprisoned by Saddam Hussein. "We hear from the American government that they've advised all American companies, including Exxon Mobil, that contracts should not be signed without the approval of the federal government."
Whatever the prospects of finding oil in the north of Iraq, observers are surprised that Exxon is prepared to hang its future in Iraq on the outcome of the power struggle between Iraqi Kurdistan and the central government. Control of the right to explore for oil and exploit it is crucial to the authorities on both sides since they have virtually no other source of revenue.
[...]
What makes the Exxon-KRG deal particularly inflammatory, says Mr Shahristani, is that three of the six blocs where Exxon is planning to drill are understood to be "across the blue line – that is outside the border of the KRG". This means they are in the large areas in northern Iraq disputed between Arabs and Kurds since 2003, but where the Kurds have military control.
[...]
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