To Israel as clouds of crisis gather

K.P. NAYAR

S.M. Krishna

Washington, Jan. 8: S.M. Krishna's hopping travel to four West Asian nations now under way has the potential to be the most important visit made by any external affairs minister in recent memory, ranking almost on par with Jaswant Singh's post-Pokhran dialogue with the Americans and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's journey to the White House to jointly announce a nuclear deal with George W. Bush in 2005.

There is quiet concern in Washington that Israel may attack Iran's nuclear facilities this year: the American reaction or role in such an attack may have unpredictable consequences on Barack Obama's bid to be re-elected President in November.

As Krishna relives his nostalgia with Israeli President Shimon Peres – the two men share a socialist past from Krishna's Praja Socialist Party days and participation in Socialist International – his mind will really be on a subject they are unlikely to discuss.

If an Israeli attack on Iran's facilities goes horribly wrong, any nuclear fallout from the raid will put at risk six million Indians living in the lower Gulf states and radiation could easily travel to the Indian sub-continent.

Iranians woke up this morning to a banner headline in the country's main daily, Kayhan, that their Islamic government as begun uranium enrichment at a new underground site near Qom, in the mountains, shielded against any Israeli airstrikes.

Israeli defence minister Ehud Barak told CNN recently that Tel Aviv would decide on a strike against Iran within six months because time is running out for such an attack. Barak precisely warned that Tehran's efforts of the kind revealed by Kayhan today would make it harder and riskier to set back any Iranian quest for nuclear weapons capability.

Another Tehran newspaper, the Khorasan, this morning quoted Revolutionary Guard deputy commander Ali Ashraf Nouri as saying that a decision has been reached to close the Straits of Hormuz if new American sanctions make it impossible for Iran to export its oil. More than 15 per cent of the global shipment of oil goes through this passage.

Krishna's challenge during his talks in Jerusalem on Monday is complicated by Israel's advocacy with the Americans not to target India for buying Iranian oil. Sources here which are familiar with privileged communication between Tel Aviv and Washington insist that both India and China will be allowed to continue purchases of Iranian crude despite Obama's new sanctions on Iran's Central Bank.

As Krishna winds up his meetings in Jerusalem, US treasury secretary Timothy Geithner will arrive in Beijing to discuss the sanctions and then go onward to Tokyo, which is another bulk buyer of Iranian crude.

While all this present both an opportunity and a challenge for Krishna's ongoing West Asia diplomacy, it remains to be seen how far the rest of the UPA government will go along in exploiting this volatile situation to New Delhi's advantage.

Although the looming crisis over Iran is an issue that the government needs to take head on and share with the people and national polity, the UPA's political compulsions appear to be casting a shadow over its diplomacy that has shades of how the Teesta river water dispute nearly wrecked the Prime Minister's recent visit to Dhaka.

Krishna's visit to Israel is public knowledge, but till the time of writing, the government has refrained from acknowledging that the external affairs minister is in West Asia. Nor has it made any official announcement about Krishna going to Israel.

The UPA is behaving as if its official silence on the visit will mean the large Shia population in Lucknow will not know about it and vote for the Congress party in assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh.

Krishna's agenda in Jerusalem has been compounded by the unwillingness of most ministers in the UPA government to travel to Israel for vote bank reasons.

Although Israel displaced Russia as the number one source for Indian defence imports two years ago, defence minister A.K. Antony has declined to visit Israel.

Last month, Israeli finance minister Yuval Steinitz came to New Delhi after waiting for India to return a similar visit that was made by his predecessor, according to Israel's embassy in New Delhi, 15 years ago.

New Delhi's ambassador in Tel Aviv, Navtej Sarna, has, however, kept up the public profile of bilateral relations by heavily concentrating on cultural relations between the two sides, taking advantage of the deep interest in India among Israelis.

An Indian film festival in November, which premiered several movies and showcased some Indian classics on the silver screen was extremely popular. To mark the 20 th anniversary of full diplomatic ties, last year Sarna organised a month-long festival, "Celebrating India in Israel".

It proved so popular that the event is to become an annual feature on Israel's cultural calendar. Sarna being an acknowledged author himself, an unusual feature of the celebrations was "Words on Water", a literary festival of Indian and Israeli writers.

Krishna's visits to Jordan and the UAE as part of his current regional diplomacy will enable him to form a comprehensive picture from all sides to assess the consequences of a possible air raid on Iran's nuclear facilities, which would be far-reaching in its consequences than any international event since the September 11 terrorist attack on the US.

Krishna is also visiting Ramallah to meet Mahmoud Abbas, President of the Palestinian National Authority, but that trip is seen as a concession to political correctness that most world leaders make when travelling to the region. Abbas's term as President expired precisely two years ago to the day Krishna will arrive in Palestine, but he continues nevertheless.

The external affairs minister's task will be to report back to his government a critical assessment of the impact on India of the rapidly growing crisis over Iran. It will be tempting for the government, supported by the Israeli lobby in India, to argue that any exemption for Indian imports of Iranian oil will inhibit an economic crisis or at least a further decline in growth.

It is instructive, as Krishna forms his assessment, that China's foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said on Wednesday that Beijing opposes one country placing its domestic law above international law and imposing unilateral sanctions on other countries.